Which NFL teams could rise or fall in 2026? The stats behind regression candidates

Which NFL teams could rise or fall in 2026? The stats behind regression candidates

The good news is your team gave you an exciting 2025-26 NFL season, pulling out close games on its way to a stellar record and postseason appearance.

The bad news? As SBD explains below, all those close wins are hard to replicate, and 2026-27 could see that same team fall back to earth.

When looking for possible regression candidates — that is, teams that will have a worse record this season than last — in the upcoming NFL season, the first place to go is record in one-score games. Close game results are not consistent year to year, meaning any of those coin flips could go the other way, dramatically changing a team’s record.

Key Takeaways:

• Looking at results in one-score games is a good way to find NFL regression candidates.
• Those results tend to even out over time.
• EPA per play rankings that were off with actual scoring offense or defense can also signal possible regression.

What Is Used to Spot Potential Regression and Turnaround

There are two metrics you can use to find possible paper tigers, or teams that could turn things around: record in one-loss games and expected points added (EPA) per play rank compared to offensive and defensive scoring rank.

One-score games are defined here as decided by seven points or fewer. Although you can go for two in the NFL now, the median NFL team converts 97% of its extra points, and just 42.9 percent of its two-point conversions, so 7 and 8 remain very different numbers.

Teams make changes in the offseason to address concerns, and they are aware that one-score wins can very easily flip. But it’s still a good baseline metric for predicting future results based on the past.

Biggest NFL Regression Candidates

Denver not only finished the 2025-26 season with the best overall record, but also had the most wins in one-score games.

The Broncos were 9-2 in games decided by 7 points or less, including a 6-2 record in games decided by 1-3 points.

Broncos fans can take some positives out of that: A younger quarterback found his groove under Sean Payton and joined a monster of a defense to pull out some exciting wins. Based on EPA per play, the Broncos were a top 10 team on both offense and defense. Statistics even show the Broncos’ offense slightly underperformed its metrics.

Sportsbooks don’t seem to be buying that, however, at least based on NFL odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of early August. The Broncos’ win total is set at 9.5 coming into this season, hinting that bookmakers expect some regression.

The Eagles had the second-most wins in one-score games with eight, but they also suffered four one-score losses.

San Francisco didn’t play in as many one-score games, but it had the league’s highest win percentage in such matchups, going 5-1. The Jaguars and Chargers were each 6-2 in one-score games, while the Patriots, Panthers and Steelers were all 7-3.

Both the Chargers (4-1) and Panthers (6-2) were especially good in games decided by a field goal or less. The Chargers join their AFC West rivals in Denver with a win total set at 9.5, while the Panthers are at 7.5, with plus-money on the over.

NFL Teams That Could Be Due for a Turnaround

If teams with exceptional records can be considered lucky, teams on the other end of the spectrum could simply be unlucky.

At the top of that list are the Kansas City Chiefs. They were 1-9 in one-score games last year, including a 1-6 record in games decided by a field goal or less.

Good luck finding value on Chiefs futures, though, as the return of Patrick Mahomes from injury is baked into all their prices. Their win total is set at 10.5, and they are -205 to make the playoffs.

Most of the teams with poor records in one-score games were at the bottom of the league overall. The Giants (1-6), Commanders (1-5), Cardinals (2-8) and Raiders (2-5) are all among the bottom six in the metric.

But teams like the Ravens (1-4) and Lions (2-5) suffered from enough close losses while barely missing the postseason to make them attractive bounce-back candidates. Their win totals of 11.5 and 10.5, respectively, reflect the real possibility of a turnaround.

NFL Futures to Target Based on Regression

Now, to put these numbers into action at the best NFL betting apps. After sifting through the NFL futures odds, here are some bets to consider for the season.

• Detroit Lions Over 10.5 Wins (-115): The Lions become a very attractive team when you dive into how their 2025 season went wrong. For starters, if they flip their one-score game record from 2-5 to 4-3, they’re in the postseason and hitting this Over. But they also had a defense that ranked 23rd in points allowed while being 13th in EPA per play, which hints at some misfortune. Additionally, they’re now playing a fourth-place schedule.
• Denver Broncos To Miss Playoffs (+118): Nine wins coming in one-score games is really hard to ignore, even if the Broncos were perfectly fine when it comes to EPA per play on both sides of the ball. The ball is going to bounce the wrong way a few times against a tougher schedule, plus the Chiefs are going to be a factor again, which they weren’t down the stretch a year ago.
• Green Bay Packers Over 9.5 Wins (-130): The Packers were 0-3 last year in games decided by a field goal or less, and while they made up for that with a 4-1 record in games decided by 4-7 points, those super tight games are coin flips that all went against them. On top of that, Green Bay had maybe the league’s most unlucky offense in 2025, ranking 17th with 23 points per game despite having the fourth-best EPA per play in the NFL. The defense did overperform (12th in points allowed, 22nd in defensive EPA), and the Micah Parsons injury isn’t great, but it’s not difficult to see the Pack getting a couple more breaks this season and reaching 10 wins.
• Carolina Panthers Under 7.5 Wins (-136): The Panthers’ sterling record in games decided by a field goal or less bailed them out of what was otherwise a very poor season. They were 23rd in defensive EPA and 26th in offensive EPA, which is brutal for a playoff team. That was pretty in line with how their offense fared on the scoreboard, but their defense overperformed against EPA, another red flag.

This story was produced by SBD via Sportradar data and reviewed and distributed by Stacker.